The Diplomat: Why the First Debate Was a Draw
By Truman Project Staff | 10.4.12
Truman Political Director Michael Moschella in the Diplomat.
With CNN, POLITICO and other major outlets calling the first Presidential debate a big knockout punch for Mitt Romney, here are some reasons why the victory isn’t as sizable as it seems.
In fact, last night’s debate was a draw.
First, I’m a numbers person and that’s what the math says. What matters in the polling is not the “who won” question which shows Romney leading. What matters is something pollsters call “movers” and “switchers.” Those are the people who make up their mind or change their vote. In CNN’s focus group there were exactly 8 for each side, and CNN’s samples are usually pretty close.